Table 2.
Measures of model performance and excess mortality
| Model Name | MSE1 | Calibration Slope2 | O/E Ratio3 (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quasi-Likelihood Poisson, FE | 23.9 | 1.00 | 1.13 (1.05, 1.24) |
| Poisson, FE | 23.9 | 1.00 | 1.13 (1.05, 1.24) |
| NB, FE | 24.3 | 1.00 | 1.13 (1.04, 1.23) |
| NB, Pooled | 24.3 | 0.97 | 1.13 (1.10, 1.16) |
| Poisson, GEE | 24.5 | 0.98 | 1.14 (1.09, 1.19) |
| Poisson, Pooled | 25.1 | 0.98 | 1.14 (1.12, 1.15) |
| Poisson, RE | 25.3 | 1.00 | 1.12 (1.04, 1.23) |
| NB, RE | 25.5 | 1.00 | 1.12 (1.02, 1.24) |
Notes: FE: fixed effects; RE: random effects; GEE: generalized estimation equations; NB: negative binomial; MSE: median squared error; O/E: observed-to-expected mortality. 1Compares predicted versus observed mortality within test sets during 5-fold cross validation. 2Coefficients from a bivariate linear regression of observed and predicted mortality within test sets during k-fold cross validation. 3National O/E ratios were calculated by dividing observed mortality versus predicted mortality from any cause during calendar year 2020.