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. 2021 Nov 9;11:21913. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-01407-y

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Model dynamics in dependence on the total number of contacts k and the fraction of random contacts p. (a) Number of simultaneously infected people (peak of infections) in percent of population. The wave peak can be massively mitigated by decreasing the fraction of random contacts, even while keeping the total number of contacts constant. (b) Cumulative number of infections after one year, in percent of the population. Similar to the peak of infections, the cumulative number of infections can be limited by reducing the fraction of random contacts. Blue square (pre-LD), green point (LD) and yellow diamond (post-LD) correspond to the median parameters and 95% CI obtained from Bayesian parameter inference for the time periods 26/02–15/03, 16/03–05/06 and 06/06–15/09, respectively, and are shown as a reference. The NPIs after March 15 prevented an exponential spread of the disease, but lifting them led to another exponential increase. Shown are contour lines of the mean of 20 independent model realizations of each parameter combination (p, k), while the other parameters were fixed at $n = 10^{5}, p_{I} = 0.02$ .