Figure 8.

Spatial auto-correlation of the total increase $\mathrm{\Delta }S$ in number of confirmed cases during the first 30 days of intervention in four countries. In each panel, the x-axis corresponds to the value of $\mathrm{\Delta }S$ in a given region in a given country; the y-axis gives the average $\mathrm{\Delta }S$ over the neighboring regions, called “spatial lag” in the caption along the y-axis. These two variables are z-standardised for better comparison. The inset in each panel represents the Kernel Density estimator for the distribution of the simulated Moran’s I. The black vertical line in the inset represents the expected Moran’s I from simulations with the null hypothesis of no spatial correlations. The red vertical line represents the value obtained from empirical data. Moran’s I along with its p-value is given in yellow box. The countries are, from top left to bottom right: India, Switzerland, Germany, and Italy.