Table 3.
Model performance in early prediction of prognosis in COVID19 patients in the external validation cohort.
| Model | No significant treatment versus O2 therapy or more | No critical care required versus critical care* or death | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC | Cutoff (%) | TP/TN/FP/FN | Sensitivity | Specificity | Accuracy | Precision | NPV | AUC | Cutoff (%) | TP/TN/FP/FN | Sensitivity | Specificity | Accuracy | Precision | NPV | |
| 1 | 0.829 (0.786–0.869) | 30 | 82/260/46/38 | 68.3% (59.2–76.5) | 85% (80.5–88.8) | 80.3% (76.2–84) | 64.1% (55.1–72.3) | 87.2% (82.9–90.8) | 0.827 (0.754–0.901) | 11 | 29/304/84/9 | 76.3% (59.8–88.6) | 78.4% (73.9–82.3) | 78.2% (73.9–82) | 25.7% (17.9–34.7) | 97.1% (94.6–98.7) |
| 2A | 0.850 (0.809–0.895) | 30 | 93/245/61/27 | 77.5% (69–84.6) | 80.1% (75.1–84.4) | 79.3% (75.2–83.1) | 60.4% (52.2–68.2) | 90.1% (85.9–93.4) | 0.833 (0.759–0.907) | 23 | 24/350/38/14 | 63.2% (46–78.2) | 90.2% (86.8–93) | 87.8% (84.3–90.7) | 38.7% (26.6–51.9) | 96.2% (93.6–97.9) |
| 2B | 0.838 (0.796–0.879) | 20 | 93/235/71/27 | 77.5% (69–84.6) | 76.8% (71.7–81.4) | 77% (72.7–80.9) | 56.7% (48.8–64.4) | 89.7% (85.4–93.1) | 0.833 (0.759–0.907) | 60 | 24/350/38/14 | 63.2% (46–78.2) | 90.2% (86.8–93) | 87.8% (84.3–90.7) | 38.7% (26.6–51.9) | 96.2% (93.6–97.9) |
| 3 | 0.861 (0.822–0.902) | 29 | 92/250/56/28 | 76.7% (68.1–83.9) | 81.7% (76.9–85.9) | 80.3% (76.2–84) | 62.2% (53.8–70.0) | 89.9% (85.8–93.2) | 0.851 (0.786–0.912) | 14 | 26/333/55/12 | 68.4% (51.3–82.5) | 85.8% (82–89.1) | 84.3% (80.5–87.6) | 32.1% (22.2–43.4) | 96.5% (94–98.2) |
| 4 | 0.871 (0.834–0.910) | 39 | 95/254/46/25 | 79.2% (70.8–86.0) | 84.7% (80.1–88.6) | 83.1% (79.2–86.6) | 67.4% (59.0–75.0) | 91% (87.1–94.1) | 0.864 (0.802–0.916) | 12 | 31/290/92/7 | 81.6% (65.7–92.3) | 75.9% (71.3–80.1) | 76.4% (72.1–80.4) | 25.2% (17.8–33.8) | 97.6% (95.2–99) |
Values in parentheses are 95% confidence intervals. AUC area under the receiver operator characteristics curve, TP true positive, TN true negative, FP false positive, FN false negative, NPV negative predictive value.
*The use of a ventilator or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation machine.