Table 3.
Measures of Predicted Performance for BSTS Methods and ARIMA Methods
| Models | Testing Horizons | Testing Horizons | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAD | MAPE | RMSE | MER | RMSPE | MAD | MAPE | RMSE | MER | RMSPE | |
| 12-Step ahead prediction | 60-Step ahead prediction | |||||||||
| ARIMA | 6403.506 | 7.671 | 7212.042 | 0.074 | 0.088 | 11,711.524 | 12.960 | 13,859.798 | 0.127 | 0.154 |
| BSTS | 6024.076 | 7.368 | 6848.671 | 0.070 | 0.086 | 4846.300 | 5.400 | 6353.691 | 0.052 | 0.072 |
| Reduced percentage (%) | Reduced percentage (%) | |||||||||
| BSTS vs ARIMA | 5.925 | 3.950 | 5.038 | 5.405 | 2.273 | 58.619 | 58.333 | 54.157 | 59.055 | 53.247 |
| 36-Step ahead prediction | 96-Step ahead prediction | |||||||||
| ARIMA | 5692.866 | 6.234 | 6838.697 | 0.063 | 0.075 | 12,958.062 | 13.848 | 15,136.311 | 0.132 | 0.166 |
| BSTS | 4733.059 | 5.182 | 6250.588 | 0.052 | 0.068 | 7077.838 | 7.297 | 8924.741 | 0.072 | 0.091 |
| Reduced percentage (%) | ||||||||||
| BSTS vs ARIMA | 16.860 | 16.875 | 8.600 | 17.460 | 9.333 | 45.379 | 47.306 | 41.038 | 45.455 | 45.181 |
Abbreviations: BSTS, Bayesian structural time series method; ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average method; MAD, mean absolute deviation; MAPE, mean absolute percentage error; RMSE, root-mean-square error; MER, mean error rate; RMSPE, root-mean-square percentage error.