Table 4.
PARP of diagnostic categories for adverse educational outcomes
| Grade repetition | School dropout | Age-grade distortion | Bully perpetrator | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | 95% CI | Estimate | 95% CI | Estimate | 95% CI | Estimate | 95% CI | |
| Fear conditions | ||||||||
| Female | ||||||||
| PARP | 1.9% | −1.2, 9 | −5.6% | −9.8, −1.5 | 1.7% | −2.2, 5.5 | 4.5% | −2.6, 11.1 |
| Population (in 1000s) | 13 253 | 13 253 | 13 253 | 13 253 | ||||
| % of outcome | 11.7% | 5.4% | 28.7% | 15.6% | ||||
| Estimated nationwide avoided cases (in 1000s) | 29 | −19, 76 | −40 | −70, −11 | 66 | −84, 210 | 93 | −54, 229 |
| Male | ||||||||
| PARP | −0.4% | −4.1, 3.2 | 8.3% | −2.0, 17.5 | 1.4% | −2.2, 4.8 | −3.9% | −10.2, 2.0 |
| Population (in 1000s) | 13 581 | 13 581 | 13 581 | 13 581 | ||||
| % of outcome | 11.7% | 5.4% | 28.7% | 24.2% | ||||
| Estimated nationwide avoided cases (in 1000s) | −6 | −66, 51 | 61 | −15, 128 | 53 | −85, 187 | −129 | −337, 67 |
| Distress conditions | ||||||||
| Female | ||||||||
| PARP | −0.1% | −2.1, 1.8 | 2.9% | −5.3, 10.4 | −0.5% | −2.5, 1.5 | 2.6% | −1.8, 6.7 |
| Population (in 1000s) | 13 253 | 13 253 | 13 253 | 13 253 | ||||
| % of outcome | 11.7% | 5.4% | 28.7% | 15.6% | ||||
| Estimated nationwide avoided cases (in 1000s) | −2 | −33, 28 | 20 | −38, 74 | −19 | −95, 56 | 53 | −37, 140 |
| Male | ||||||||
| PARP | 2.6% | 0.3, 4.9 | 2.6% | −1.5, 6.6 | 1.5% | −0.5, 3.5 | 1.8% | −1.0, 4.4 |
| Population (in 1000s) | 13 581 | 13 581 | 13 581 | 13 581 | ||||
| % of outcome | 11.7% | 5.4% | 28.7% | 24.2% | ||||
| Estimated nationwide avoided cases (in 1000s) | 42 | 4, 78 | 19 | −11, 49 | 59 | −18, 135 | 58 | −32, 146 |
| Externalising conditions | ||||||||
| Female | ||||||||
| PARP | 5.0% | 0.7, 9.2 | −4.3% | −15.2, 5.5 | 10.2% | 3.2, 16.6 | 11.4% | 1.5, 20.3 |
| Population (in 1000s) | 13 253 | 13 253 | 13 253 | 13 253 | ||||
| % of outcome | 11.7% | 5.4% | 28.7% | 15.6% | ||||
| Estimated nationwide avoided cases (in 1000s) | 78 | 12, 142 | −31 | −109, 39 | 386 | 123, 630 | 236 | 32, 420 |
| Male | ||||||||
| PARP | 4.8% | 0.2, 9.2 | 2.6% | −9.5, 13.4 | 5.3% | 0.1, 10.2 | 4.1% | −4.8, 12.2 |
| Population (in 1000s) | 13 581 | 13 581 | 13 581 | 13 581 | ||||
| % of outcome | 11.7% | 5.4% | 28.7% | 24.2% | ||||
| Estimated nationwide avoided cases (in 1000s) | 76 | 2, 146 | 19 | −70, 98 | 205 | 2, 398 | 135 | −157, 402 |
Note: Estimated avoided cases = PARP × Population in 1000s × % of outcome. PARP estimates were derived from the adjusted regression models (Table 3) and weighted for high-risk oversampling to balance for random sample. To estimate the number of people that would have benefited if mental health conditions would have been avoided, we used data from the Instituto Nacional de Estudos e Pesquisas Educacionais (INEP) to calculate the population enrolled in schools at age range for the follow-up sample, which ranged from 6 to 17 years (primary and secondary education age range) as well as the proportion of outcomes. Therefore, ‘Population’ refers to the number of males (18 661 803) and females (18 211 089) enrolled in schools multiplied by the proportion of state-funded urban students in 2014 (72.78%). The ‘% of outcomes’ were extracted from the 2014 Brazilian educational census (http://portal.inep.gov.br/web/guest/indicadores-educacionais) for grade repetition, dropout and age-grade distortion. In bold, p < 0.05.