Table 1.

Two-year forecast accuracy using an out-of-sample training-test validation set (minor numbers indicating greater forecast quality).

Model	MSE	RMSE	MAPE	U1	U2
Poisson	48,816.735	220.945	6.595	0.018	0.009
B-spline	19,724.682	140.445	3.108	0.012	0.006

MSE: mean squared error; RMSE: root mean squared error; MAPE: mean absolute percentage error; U1/2: Thiel’s U inequality coefficients.