Table 3.
The effect of temperature at t-7 (at 12:00 local time) on different new cases mediated by containment policy and physical mobility.
| (I) | (II) | (III) | (IV) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (log) new cases | (log) new cases | (log) new cases | (log) new cases | |
| Temperature | − 0.0301*** (0.005) | − 0.0155*** (0.002) | − 0.0097*** (0.002) | − 0.0103*** (0.001) |
| Humidity | 0.0001 (0.000) | − 0.0003 (0.000) | − 0.0003 (0.000) | − 0.0003 (0.000) |
| Wind speed | − 0.0033*** (0.001) | − 0.0053*** (0.001) | − 0.0058*** (0.001) | − 0.0056*** (0.001) |
| Precipitation | − 0.0907 (0.271) | − 0.1704 (0.258) | − 0.2379 (0.258) | − 0.2237 (0.258) |
| Temperature* interaction | 3.1784*** (0.546) | − 1.8735*** (0.359) | − 2.2438*** (0.505) | − 1.9848*** (0.352) |
| Constant | − 0.0842 (0.243) | 2.8603*** (0.261) | 2.1635*** (0.149) | 2.3432*** (0.150) |
| Interaction variable | Containment policy index | Mobility: workplace | Mobility: transit | Mobility: retail |
| Observations | 1,207,317 | 1,043,565 | 1,038,491 | 1,043,275 |
| R-squared | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| County fixed effect | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| State-date fixed effect | YES | YES | YES | YES |
The outcome variable is (log) new cases. Column I includes the (standardized) interaction term between temperature and the containment health policy index provided by the Oxford Government Tracker; columns II–VI include (standardized) interaction terms between temperature and mobility indices provided Google. Standard deviations based on robust standard errors clustered at the county level in parentheses.
***,**,*Significance at 1, 5 and 10%, respectively; N = 1,207,317.