Table 3.
Improvement in AUC and NRIa resulting from addition of TAA panel to questionnaire-based models in the identification set, validation set and exploration set
| Dataset | AUC (95% CI) (full modelb) |
AUC (95% CI) (questionnaire-based modelc) |
NRI (P value) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | |||
| Identification set (for detection of prevalent esophageal malignancy) | 0·670 (0·619-0·719) | 0·639 (0·588-0·690) | 0·229 (0·013) |
| Validation set (for detection of prevalent esophageal malignancy) | 0·703 (0·594-0·812) | 0·627 (0·514-0·739) | 0·817 (<0·0001) |
| Exploration set (for prediction of long-term ESCC risk) | 0·575 (0·512-0·638) | 0·577 (0·514-0·640) | 0·141 (0·20) |
| Female | |||
| Identification set (for detection of prevalent esophageal malignancy) | 0·745 (0·675-0·814) | 0·658 (0·585-0·732) | 0·604 (<0·0001) |
| Validation set (for detection of prevalent esophageal malignancy) | 0·644 (0·484-0·804) | 0·563 (0·363-0·762) | 0·472 (0·068) |
| Exploration set (for prediction of long-term ESCC risk) | 0·625 (0·530-0·719) | 0·626 (0·531-0·722) | 0·179 (0·14) |
| Male | |||
| Identification set (for detection of prevalent esophageal malignancy) | 0·662 (0·596-0·728) | 0·619 (0·548-0·690) | 0·357 (0·0028) |
| Validation set (for detection of prevalent esophageal malignancy) | 0·702 (0·563-0·842) | 0·671 (0·534-0·808) | 0·513 (0·019) |
| Exploration set (for prediction of long-term ESCC risk) | 0·527 (0·447-0·607) | 0·539 (0·455-0·623) | 0·096 (0·25) |
AUC was calculated to evaluate the discriminatory performance of these models. NRI was calculated to determine whether selected TAA markers improve the diagnostic performance of traditional questionnaire-based models.
The full model consisted of TAA markers (NY-ESO-1, STIP1, MMP-7 in females and NY-ESO-1, STIP1 in males) as well as the aforementioned risk factors.
The questionnaire-based model contained only well-recognized risk factors for ESCC (age, family history of esophageal cancer, body mass index, smoking and alcohol consumption).
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidential interval; ESCC, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma; MMP-7, Matrix metallopeptidase 7; NRI, net reclassification improvement; NY-ESO-1, Cancer/testis antigen 1B; STIP1, Stress-induced-phosphoprotein 1; TAA, tumor-associated autoantibodies.