Table 8.
Determinants of return 270 days after the ICO
| Fundraising | Business | Governance | All characteristics | Investor base | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
| Has VC backing |
0.501** (2.29) |
0.423* (1.79) |
0.319 (1.39) |
0.365 (1.37) |
0.712** (2.47) |
|||
| Unsold tokens burnt |
− 0.019 (− 0.09) |
− 0.000 (− 0.00) |
− 0.020 (− 0.09) |
− 0.066 (− 0.26) |
0.555** (2.15) |
|||
| Ln(1 + presale amount raised) |
− 0.130 (− 1.52) |
− 0.259* (− 1.90) |
− 0.183* (− 1.92) |
− 0.406** (− 2.62) |
0.091 (0.66) |
|||
| Ethereum return |
1.244** (2.56) |
0.533 (0.84) |
0.804** (2.04) |
0.913** (2.28) |
1.119** (2.16) |
0.647 (0.85) |
0.313 (0.42) |
|
| Bitcoin return |
− 0.721 (− 0.92) |
0.155 (0.15) |
0.260 (0.39) |
0.234 (0.34) |
− 0.467 (− 0.59) |
0.005 (0.00) |
1.711* (1.74) |
|
| Presale discount |
− 1.333** (− 2.19) |
− 1.238* (− 1.81) |
||||||
| Presale lockup period |
0.373 (0.35) |
− 0.461 (− 0.48) |
||||||
| Product or prototype |
0.015 (0.09) |
− 0.151 (− 0.74) |
− 0.123 (− 0.45) |
0.527** (2.23) |
||||
| Experienced team |
0.183 (1.04) |
0.063 (0.29) |
0.095 (0.34) |
0.680* (1.97) |
||||
| High-quality advisory team |
0.150 (0.86) |
0.280 (1.33) |
0.353 (1.37) |
0.252 (0.78) |
||||
| Project code available |
0.532*** (3.14) |
0.467** (2.15) |
0.312 (0.94) |
0.739** (2.49) |
||||
| Use of proceeds mentioned |
− 0.067 (− 0.33) |
0.063 (0.21) |
0.060 (0.18) |
− 0.048 (− 0.17) |
||||
| Offshore incorporation |
− 0.149 (− 0.62) |
0.117 (0.39) |
0.018 (0.05) |
0.620* (1.78) |
||||
| Legal form and jurisdiction known |
0.314 (0.90) |
0.365 (0.89) |
0.035 (0.08) |
− 0.401 (− 0.62) |
||||
| KYC/AML procedure |
0.245 (1.18) |
0.121 (0.49) |
0.248 (0.85) |
0.564* (1.92) |
||||
| Token share team (ex ante) |
0.100 (0.20) |
− 0.136 (− 0.22) |
− 0.388 (− 0.47) |
− 1.542* (− 1.91) |
||||
| Team lockup period |
0.175* (1.96) |
0.204 (1.62) |
0.501*** (3.27) |
0.109 (0.66) |
||||
| Legal advisor disclosed |
− 0.013 (− 0.07) |
0.061 (0.28) |
0.278 (0.98) |
0.002 (0.01) |
||||
| Ln(number of contributors) |
0.113 (0.82) |
0.003 (0.03) |
||||||
| Ln(median contribution size) |
− 0.104 (− 0.53) |
− 0.365 (− 1.64) |
||||||
| Month FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Industry FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| N | 207 | 108 | 261 | 251 | 199 | 106 | 71 | 70 |
| R2 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 0.59 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.72 | 0.89 |
The table shows OLS regressions of ICO returns on ICO characteristics. The dependent variable is the log return based on the average crowdsale price 270 calendar days following the completion of the ICO. If the average price is unavailable, the return is calculated based on the mid-price (average between the maximum and minimum crowdsale price). If an ICO is delisted before 270 days of trading, the return is based on the last price before delisting. All variables are defined in “Appendix 2.” All regressions include seven industry fixed effects. All continuous variables are winsorized at the 1 and 99% level, respectively. One, two and three asterisks indicate statistical significance at the 10, 5 and 1% level, respectively