Fig. 4.
Combining behavioral and asymptomatic surveillance testing NPIs for COVID-19 control., A. Mean reduction in RE * , B. cumulative cases saved, and C. daily case counts for the first 50 days of the epidemic, across regimes of differing testing frequency and a combination of asymptomatic surveillance testing, contact tracing, symptomatic isolation, and group size limit interventions. All scenarios depicted here assumed test turnaround time, symptomatic isolation lags, and contact tracing lags drawn from a log-normal distribution with mean=one day. Limit of detection was fixed at 101 and group size limits at 12. Dynamics shown here are from simulations in which testing was limited to two test days per week., *Note: REreduction (panel A) is calculated as the difference in mean REin the absence vs. presence of a given NPI. The upper confidence limit (uci) in REreduction is calculated as the difference in uci REin the absence vs. presence of NPI. In our model, mean REin the absence of NPI equals 1.05 and uci REin the absence of NPI equals 8.6.