Fig. 5.
Targeted testing of high transmission risk cohorts in a heterogenous population., A. Schematic of transmission risk group cohorts in the heterogenous model. The population is divided into 5000 “high transmission risk” and 15000 “low transmission risk” individuals, for which, 90% and 40% of the proportion of transmission events take place within the UC Berkeley community, respectively. Of those transmission events within the Berkeley community, the majority (80%) are restricted within the same transmission risk group as the infector, while 20% are sourced to the opposing risk group. Half of each cohort is assumed to be enrolled in asymptomatic surveillance testing and subjected to the differing test frequency regimes depicted in panels B. through D. Panel B. shows the progression of cumulative cases across 730 days of simulation for each testing regime, while panel C. and D. give, respectively, the reduction in RE * and the total cases saved achieved by each test regime vs. a no intervention baseline., *Note: REreduction (panel A) is calculated as the difference in mean REin the absence vs. presence of a given NPI. The upper confidence limit (uci) in REreduction is calculated as the difference in uci REin the absence vs. presence of NPI. In our model, mean REin the absence of NPI equals 1.05 and uci REin the absence of NPI equals 8.6.