Table 1.

Parameter ranges and interventions included in model.

Parameter	Values investigated	Referencesa
Basic epidemiology
Population size	•20,000	–
Number initially infected	•100	–
Possible cases per infectious individual (R0), prior to environmental corrections	•Negative binomial distribution (main text): mean = 2.5; k = 0.10 •Lognormal distribution (Fig. S2): mean= 2.5; sd = 0.10 •Negative binomial distribution, Delta (Fig. S7, S8): mean = 2.5; k = 0.10.	(Endo et al., 2020;Liu and Rocklov, 2021)
Transmission events per infectious individual	•Poisson distribution: $\lambda =3$	–
Virus generation time	•Weibull distribution: $k=2.826;\lambda =5.665$	(Ferretti et al., 2020)
Proportion of transmissions maintained within the UCB community	•90% (main text) •50% (Fig. S5)	–
Population proportion vaccinated	•0% (main text) •97.7% (Fig. S7) •60% (Fig. S8)	(UC Berkeley COVID-19 Dashboard,n.d.; University of Alabama System COVID-19 Dashboard, n.d.)
Proportion of vaccinated individuals experiencing breakthrough cases	•0% (main text) •5% (Fig. S7, S8)	(Polack et al., 2020)
Threshold viral titer for symptom onset	•Lognormal distribution: mean = 105 viral cp/μl RNA; sd = 104 viral cp/μ (main text; yields ~30% asymptomatic infections) •Lognormal distribution: mean = 107 viral cp/μl RNA; sd = 104 viral cp/μ (Fig. S3; yields ~50% asymptomatic infections)	(Mizumoto et al., 2020, Nishiura et al., 2020)
Behavior-based NPIs
Group size limits	•6, 12, 16, 20, 50, no limit (main text;Fig. S1, S2)	–
Population proportion adhering to group size limits	•90% (main text;Fig. S2) •50% (Fig. S1)	–
Lag time to symptomatic isolation	•Normal distribution: mean = 1,2,3,4,5 days; sd = 0.5 days	–
Lag time to contact tracing	•Normal distribution: mean = 1 day; sd = 0.5 days	–
Population proportion participating in contact tracing	•0% (main text) •90% (Fig. S4)	–
Testing interventions
Testing frequency	•semi-weekly (2x/week) •weekly •every-two-weeks	–
Test days per week	•2 (main text) •5, 7 (Fig. S6)	–
Testing turnaround time	•Normal distribution: mean = 1,2,3,4,5,10 days; sd= 0.5 days	–
Test limit of detection	•101, 103, 105 viral cp/μl RNA	(Amen et al., 2020, Vogels et al., 2020, Meyerson et al., 2020, Dao Thi et al., 2020, Bordi et al., 2020, Fiedler et al., 2021)

^aif applicable; otherwise, indicates a parameter investigated in this analysis.