Figure 2.

Predicting vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 variants

The association between mean neutralisation of ancestral SARS-CoV-2 and protection against symptomatic (A) and severe infection (B) with different variants is shown. The line indicates the model prediction of efficacy for a given neutralisation against ancestral virus. Shading indicates 95% CI based on uncertainties in measuring mean neutralisation titre against ancestral virus, the loss of neutralisation against each variant and in model parameters. Individual points shown represent results of different studies of vaccine efficacy against ancestral virus (black) or SARS-CoV-2 variants. Details of studies of ancestral virus are outlined in Khoury et al⁸ (all of which are randomised controlled trials), and studies of variants of concern are outlined in the appendix (p 17).