Table 3.
Results of the GLM model using stepwise covariate selection algorithm for cumulative deaths and second wave deaths peak height, accounting for spatial correlation (N = 38)
| Estimate | Standard Error | P value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| From the second wave start to the second wave peak | |||
| Cumulative deaths during the period from the second wave start to the second wave peak | |||
| Intercept | 6 · 3101 | 0 · 1539 | <0 · 0001 |
| Average proportion of EU2 variant | 0 · 9970 | 0 · 3703 | 0 · 0109 |
| GDP per capita [1 mln USD] | −16 · 8039 | 4 · 9319 | 0 · 0017 |
| Cumulative number of vaccinated people before the second wave peak [per 1 mln inhabitants] | 15 · 1827 | 2 · 7504 | <0 · 0001 |
| Second wave deaths peak height | |||
| Intercept | 2 · 0985 | 0 · 5076 | 0 · 0002 |
| Average proportion of 20A (S:D614G) variant | −0 · 9974 | 0 · 4533 | 0 · 0349 |
| Average proportion of B.1.1.7 variant | 3 · 0603 | 0 · 9726 | 0 · 0035 |
| Percentage of population aged 65 or more | 0 · 07303 | 0 · 02495 | 0 · 0062 |
| Cancer prevalence | −0 · 4449 | 0 · 2034 | 0 · 0359 |
| During two months before the second wave peak | |||
| Cumulative deaths during two months before the second wave peak | |||
| Intercept | 5 · 9980 | 0 · 1405 | <·0001 |
| Average proportion of EU2 variant | 0 · 9926 | 0 · 3220 | 0 · 0041 |
| Average proportion of B.1.1.7 variant | 1 · 4066 | 0 · 3311 | 0 · 0002 |
| GDP per capita [1 mln USD] | −11 · 9994 | 4 · 2527 | 0 · 0079 |
| Second wave deaths peak height | |||
| Intercept | 1 · 8884 | 0 · 5214 | 0 · 0009 |
| Average proportion of B.1.1.7 variant | 1 · 2865 | 0 · 3726 | 0 · 0015 |
| Percentage of population aged 65 or more | 0 · 08907 | 0 · 02595 | 0 · 0016 |
| Cancer prevalence | −0 · 5839 | 0 · 2038 | 0 · 0071 |
| Between 1 January – 25 February 2021 | |||
| Cumulative deaths between 1 January – 25 February 2021 | |||
| Intercept | 4 · 3707 | 0 · 5729 | <·0001 |
| Average proportion of B.1.1.7 variant | 1 · 4179 | 0 · 3471 | 0 · 0003 |
| Percentage of population aged 65 or more | 0 · 06612 | 0 · 02928 | 0 · 0304 |
| GDP per capita [1 mln USD] | −11 · 0302 | 4 · 5006 | 0 · 0196 |
| From the second wave start to 25 February 2021 | |||
| Cumulative deaths from the second wave start to 25 February 2021 | |||
| Intercept | 7 · 0099 | 0 · 1302 | <·0001 |
| GDP per capita [1 mln USD] | −10 · 0637 | 3 · 9730 | 0 · 0158 |
| Second wave deaths peak height | |||
| Intercept | 1 · 7869 | 0 · 5483 | 0 · 0025 |
| Average proportion of B.1.1.7 variant | 2 · 3707 | 0 · 9945 | 0 · 0229 |
| Percentage of population aged 65 or more | 0 · 07842 | 0 · 02855 | 0 · 0096 |
| Cancer prevalence | −0 · 5034 | 0 · 2101 | 0 · 0222 |
GLM multivariate models with normal distribution and logit link function were used to explore factors associated with COVID-19 cumulative deaths and second wave deaths peak height. The number of cumulative deaths and average variants proportions were calculated during each of considered periods. Each model was run using 38 observations. Models were selected based on the use of stepwise selection algorithm.