Table 2.
Estimated forward lagged (0, 3, 7, 14 days) daily variation in the number of deaths according to the days since the outbreak started and daily increases in ICU occupations. The estimated effects (effect daily deaths) are reported according to different ICU occupation increases (identified in the columns labeled high and low) together with SE and 95% CI
| Panel 1 Italy | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lag | Variable | Low | High | Effect daily deaths | SE | Lower.0.95 | Upper.0.95 |
| lag 0 | Delta ICU | 0 | 50 | −8.74 | 35.6 | −81.01 | 63.53 |
| lag 0 | Days | 10.75 | 30.25 | 534.7 | 30.95 | 471.8 | 597.5 |
| lag 0 | Delta ICU | 50 | 100 | −4.62 | 22.42 | −50.13 | 40.89 |
| lag 0 | Delta ICU | 100 | 250 | 10.93 | 43.34 | −77.06 | 98.91 |
| lag 3 | Delta ICU | 0 | 50 | 37.68 | 35.89 | −35.19 | 110.5 |
| lag 3 | Delta ICU | 50 | 100 | 46.2 | 22.6 | 0.31 | 92.09 |
| lag 3 | Delta ICU | 100 | 250 | 134.1 | 43.7 | 45.38 | 222.8 |
| lag 7 | Delta ICU | 0 | 50 | 99.75 | 34.1 | 30.53 | 169 |
| lag 7 | Delta ICU | 50 | 100 | 95.31 | 21.47 | 51.72 | 138.9 |
| lag 7 | Delta ICU | 100 | 250 | 250.4 | 70.12 | 108.1 | 392.8 |
| lag 14 | Delta ICU | 0 | 50 | 169.4 | 39.61 | 88.94 | 249.8 |
| lag 14 | Delta ICU | 50 | 100 | 137.5 | 24.95 | 86.88 | 188.2 |
| lag 14 | Delta ICU | 100 | 250 | 157.6 | 81.47 | −7.81 | 323 |