TABLE 14.
Test characteristics of individual predictors of common bile duct stones
| Stone US |
Cholangitis | Total bilirubin >4 mg /dL first set labs |
Total bilirubin >4 mg /dL second set labs |
Dilated common bile duct |
Bilirubin 1.8-4 mg/dL |
Abnormal liver function tests |
Age > 55 |
Gallstone pancreatitis |
Total bilirubin > 1.8 mg/dL + common bile duct dilation |
Total bilirubin > 4.0 mg/dL + common bile duct dilation |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adams91OR (95% CI) | 5.5 (2.7-11.1) | 2.0 (1.3-3.0) | 2.0 (1.3-3.0) | ||||||||
| Suarez93 MV OR (95% CI) | 6.4 (1.5-27.3) | 4.9 (1.8-12.9) | |||||||||
| He94 OR (95% CI) | 17.3 (12.6-23.8) | 3.1 (2.3-4.2) | 1.8 (1.5-2.2) | 1.8 (1.4-2.4) | 2.3 (1.9-2.9) | 1.4 (1.2-1.7) | .4 (.3-.6) | ||||
| Rubin90 OR (95% CI) | 6.7 (2.6-17.2) | 3.9 (1.3-11.6) | 2.7 (1.8-4.0) | 2.2 (1.5-3.1) | .9 (.6-1.3) | 2.9 (1.2-7.2) | 1.4 (.9-2.2) | .6 (.4-.9) | |||
| Magalhaes92 OR (95% CI) | 11.3 (5.3-23.8 | 6.5 (1.9-21.8) | 1.8 (1.0-3.1) | 5.1 (2.9-9.0) | 3.2 (1.6-6.1) | 2.4 (1.2-4.9) | 2.4 (1.4-4.2) | .6 (.3-1.0) | |||
| Adams91 sensitivity | 22% | 30% | 22% | 42% | 17% | ||||||
| Suarez93 sensitivity | 14% | 30% | 36% | 56% | 20% | ||||||
| He94 sensitivity (95% CI) | 44% (41-47) | 1% (0-2) | 22% (20-25) | 75% (72-77) | 44% (41-47) | 77% (75-80) | 60% (57-62) | 10% (8-12) | 36% (33-38) | 19% (17-22) | |
| Rubin90 sensitivity | 13% | 7% | 41% | 58% | 32% | 98% | 18% | 22% | |||
| Magalhaes92 sensitivity | 56% | 18% | 43% | 84% | 61% | 90% | 79% | 20% | |||
| Adams91 specificity | 94% | 83% | 86% | 69% | 93% | ||||||
| Suarez93 specificity | 97% | 84% | 90% | 76% | 94% | ||||||
| He94 specificity (95% CI) | 97% (95-98) | 99% (99-100) | 94% (92-95) | 63% (60-65) | 80% (78-82) | 50% (48-52) | 54% (51-56) | 85% (83-86) | 90% (89-91) | 96% (95-97) | |
| Rubin90 specificity | 98% | 98% | 79% | 61% | 63% | 7% | 86% | 69% | |||
| Magalhaes92 specificity | 90% | 97% | 71% | 49% | 67% | 21% | 38% | 70% | |||
| Adams91 positive predictive value | 71% | 56% | 53% | 44% | 59% | ||||||
| Suarez93 positive predictive value | 77% | 57% | 66% | 53% | 70% | ||||||
| He94 positive predictive value (95% CI) | 91% (89-94) | 56% (37-75) | 69% (54-74) | 57% (54-59) | 59% (55-62) | 50% (48-53) | 46% (43-48) | 29% (25-34) | 70% (66-74) | 78% (73-83) | |
| Rubin90 positive predictive value | 88% | 83% | 72% | 66% | 54% | 57% | 63% | 48% | |||
| Magalhaes92 positive predictive value | 92% | 92% | 75% | 77% | 75% | 70% | 72% | 57% | |||
| Adams91 negative predictive value | 62% | 60% | 60% | 67% | 58% | ||||||
| Suarez93 negative predictive value | 62% | 63% | 73% | 78% | 63% | ||||||
| He94 negative predictive value (95% CI) | 73% (71-75) | 61% (59-63) | 65% (63-67) | 79% (77-81) | 69% (66-71) | 77% (74-79) | 67% (64-69) | 59% (57-61) | 68% (66-70) | 58% (54-61) | |
| Rubin90 negative predictive value | 47% | 45% | 51% | 53% | 43% | 68% | 45% | 41% | |||
| Magalhaes92 negative predictive value | 50% | 37% | 38% | 60% | 51% | 51% | 48% | 30% |
US, Ultrasound; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; MV, multivariate.