Table 3.
Averted measles cases, deaths, and DALYs by vaccination strategies and evaluation scenarios. Total vaccine-averted burden in ten high measles burden countries over 2000–2050 is presented, with proportionate change from the ‘base’ scenario shown in parentheses. All model scenarios were conducted under the assumption of R0 = 16. Details of data sources for key determinants assumed for each scenario can be found in Table 1. Abbreviations: CFR case-fatality risk, DALY disability-adjusted life years, MCV1 first routine dose of measles-containing vaccine, MCV2 second routine dose of measles-containing vaccine, SIA supplementary immunisation activity
| Scenarios | MCV1 | MCV1 + MCV2 | MCV1 + MCV2 + SIAs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases, millions | Deaths, millions | DALYs, millions | Cases, millions | Deaths, millions | DALYs, millions | Cases, millions | Deaths, millions | DALYs, millions | |
| Base |
1802 (ref) |
47.3 (ref) |
3155 (ref) |
2023 (ref) |
50.8 (ref) |
3396 (ref) |
2257 (ref) |
57.8 (ref) |
3819 (ref) |
| (A) CFR, Portnoy’s method | – |
39.3 (− 17.0%) |
2589 (− 17.9%) |
– |
40.9 (− 19.6%) |
2698 (− 20.6%) |
– |
44.9 (− 22.3%) |
2944 (− 22.9%) |
| (B) Contact pattern, synthetic matrices |
1824 (+ 1.2%) |
46.4 (− 1.8%) |
3099 (− 1.8%) |
2024 (+ 0.04%) |
49.4 (− 2.9%) |
3296 (− 2.9%) |
2265 (+ 0.36%) |
56.0 (− 3.2%) |
3697 (− 3.2%) |
| (B’) Contact pattern, proportional mixing |
1815 (+0.69%) |
43.9 (− 7.3%) |
2913 (− 7.7%) |
1982 (− 2.0%) |
46.4 (− 8.8%) |
3076 (− 9.4%) |
2215 (− 1.8%) |
52.6 (− 8.9%) |
3454 (− 9.6%) |
| (B”) Contact pattern, uniform mixing |
1813 (0.61%) |
36.5 (− 22.9%) |
2413 (− 23.5%) |
1964 (− 2.9%) |
38.3 (− 24.6%) |
2527 (− 25.6%) |
2225 (− 1.4%) |
43.5 (− 24.7%) |
2826 (− 26.0%) |
| (C) Age-dependent vaccine efficacy, linear trend |
1615 (− 10.4%) |
42.8 (− 9.6%) |
2853 (− 9.6%) |
1939 (− 4.2%) |
48.4 (− 4.8%) |
3241 (− 4.6%) |
2213 (− 1.9%) |
56.6 (− 2.1%) |
3743 (− 2.0%) |
| (D) SIA delivery to zero-dose population, dependency on previous vaccination | – | – | – | – | – | – |
2266 (+ 0.40%) |
57.94 (+ 0.26%) |
3829 (+ 0.26%) |
| (D’) SIA delivery to zero-dose population, dependency on previous vaccination, excluding the largest survey | – | – | – | – | – | – |
2263 (+ 0.25%) |
57.89 (+ 0.18%) |
3826 (+ 0.18%) |
| (D”) SIA delivery to zero-dose population, 7.7% never reached | – | – | – | – | – | – |
2118 (− 6.1%) |
53.8 (− 6.9%) |
3576 (− 6.4%) |
| Full-update |
1646 (− 8.7%) |
35.9 (− 24.2%) |
2367 (− 25.0%) |
1949 (− 3.7%) |
38.1 (− 25.2%) |
2518 (− 25.9%) |
2244 (− 0.58%) |
42.6 (− 26.2%) |
2798 (− 26.7%) |