Figure 2:

The third step (M${}_3$) of an incremental summary of active inference. In a generative model of action, state transitions are conditioned on policies $\pi$. Prior policy beliefs $\mathbf{\pi }$ are informed by the baseline prior over policies (“model free,” denoted ${\mathbf{E}}_{\pi }$) and the expected free energy (${\mathbf{G}}_{\pi }$), which evaluates each policy-specific perception model (as in M${}_2$) in terms of the expected risk and ambiguity. Risk biases the action model toward phenotype-congruent preferences ($\mathbf{C}$). Posterior policy beliefs are informed by the fit between anticipated (policy-specific) and preferred outcomes, while at the same time minimizing their ambiguity.