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. 2021 Nov 16;11(11):e053507. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-053507

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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Projected numbers of COVID-19 deaths with different combinations of partial efficacy of infection and disease protection, immunity duration and reduction in reinfectivity. The cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths by the end of 2024, after four repeated annual vaccinations of 90% individuals aged ≥18 during 2021–2024. The overall vaccine efficacy was 85%; ‘0.00/0.85’ refers to all vaccine efficacy attributable to disease protection, ‘0.61/0.61’ refers to equal infection and disease protection, ‘0.85/0.00’ refers to all efficacy attributable to infection protection. Immunity duration: ‘365/182’ refers to 365 and 182 days, and ‘730/365’ refers to 730 and 365 days, respectively, natural and vaccine immunity. A–C show results under the assumption of 30%, 45% and 60% reductions in reinfectivity.