Table 1.
Projected total and daily peak COVID-19 deaths after annual vaccination programmes by 2024 in England
| Scenario | Long-term vaccine efficacy (%) | Reduction in reinfectivity (%) | Immunity duration (day) Natural/vaccine |
Total COVID-19 deaths (2020–2024) | Daily peaks of COVID-19 deaths | ||
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |||||
| A1b4 | 85.0 | 60 | 730/365 | 127 550 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| A2b4 | 85.0 | 45 | 730/365 | 134 421 | 42 | 0 | 36 |
| A3b4 | 85.0 | 30 | 730/365 | 152 926 | 64 | 4 | 131 |
| A1c4 | 85.0 | 60 | 365/182 | 148 093 | 89 | 2 | 7 |
| A2c4 | 85.0 | 45 | 365/182 | 194 661 | 151 | 55 | 168 |
| A3c4 | 85.0 | 30 | 365/182 | 229 664 | 208 | 145 | 96 |
| B1b4 | 62.5 | 60 | 730/365 | 143 233 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
| B2b4 | 62.5 | 45 | 730/365 | 179 002 | 209 | 0 | 224 |
| B3b4 | 62.5 | 30 | 730/365 | 233 075 | 366 | 3 | 384 |
| B1c4 | 62.5 | 60 | 365/182 | 198 684 | 351 | 2 | 47 |
| B2c4 | 62.5 | 45 | 365/182 | 350 016 | 615 | 537 | 886 |
| B3c4 | 62.5 | 30 | 365/182 | 430 219 | 888 | 616 | 1362 |
Scenario labels are corresponding to those used in online supplemental table 1. We assume annual vaccination covers 75%–90% of individuals aged ≥16 years; the short-term vaccine efficacy is 62.5% after the first dose and 85% after the second dose, and the overall vaccine efficacy is equally attributable to the infection and disease protection. ‘Long-term vaccine efficacy’ refers to vaccine efficacy in fully vaccinated after January 2022.