Table 2.

Key measures from alternative scenarios of early or delayed implementation of policy interventions: the maximum number of daily new reported cases, date on which the peak occurs, the number of daily new cases at the end of the simulated Alert Level 4 period, the cumulative number of cases and the total number of deaths at the end of the simulated seven-week period of Alert Level 4/3 restrictions (dates given in ‘AL3 ends' and footnotes). For each measure, except P(elim), the mean value from 5000 simulations is reported alongside the interval range, in parentheses, in which 90% of simulations results are contained.

scenario	border self-isolation	border closed	AL4 starts	AL3 ends	max. new daily cases	date of peak	new daily cases at end of AL4	cumulative reported cases	total deaths	P(elim) five weeks after end of AL3
actual	15 Mar	19 Mar	25 Mar	13 May	84	25 Mar	3	1503	22	—
0	15 Mar	19 Mar	25 Mar	13 May	80 [67, 99]	31 Mar [26 Mar, 2 Apr]	4 [1, 8]	1448 [1208, 1796]	23 [14, 33]	0.66
1	15 Mar	19 Mar	20 Mar	8 May	69 [61, 79]	26 Mar [25 Mar, 26 Mar]	4 [1, 7]	953 [839, 1132]	14 [8, 21]	0.63
2a	15 Mar	19 Mar	30 Mar	18 May	108 [84, 139]	6 Apr [1 Apr, 09 Apr]	7 [3, 12]	2373 [1918, 2999]	39 [26, 55]	0.57
2b	15 Mar	19 Mar	4 Apr	23 May	179 [137, 233]	11 Apr [9 Apr, 14 Apr]	12 [6, 19]	3988 [3161, 5115]	67 [48, 91]	0.38
2c	15 Mar	19 Mar	14 Apr	28 May	503 [382, 661]	21 Apr [20 Apr, 23 Apr]	34 [22, 49]	11 534 [8854, 15 048]	200 [147, 266]	0.07
3	10 Mar	19 Mar	25 Mar	13 May	79 [67, 97]	31 Mar [26 Mar, 2 Apr]	4 [1, 8]	1422 [1194, 1765]	22 [14, 32]	0.66
4	15 Mar	24 Mar	25 Mar	13 May	91 [77, 110]	1 Apr [31 Mar, 2 Apr]	5 [1, 9]	1594 [1359, 1934]	25 [16, 35]	0.55
5a	10 Mar	19 Mar	20 Mar	8 May	68 [61, 79]	26 Mar [25 Mar, 26 Mar]	4 [1, 7]	941 [826, 1119]	14 [8, 21]	0.63
5b	15 Mar	24 Mar	30 Mar	18 May	120 [97, 152]	6 Apr [1 Apr, 8 Apr]	7 [3, 12]	2501 [2069, 3121]	41 [28, 56]	0.53
6	15 Mar	19 Mar	—	—	47 592 [47 240, 47 962]	14 Jun [11 Jun, 17 Jun]	1127 [841, 1492]a	60 443 [45 761, 79 201]b;	1187 [891, 1565]b;	0.00d
								1 812 900 [1 809 600, 1 816 300]c	31 905 [31 606, 32 204]c

^aEvaluated on 27 April 2020 (end of actual AL4); continues to increase after this date.

^bEvaluated on 13 May 2020 (end of actual AL3); continues to increase after this date.

^cEvaluated at end of outbreak. Across all realizations, the outbreak had run its full course by approx. October 2020, on average, and the last case reported by 20 December 2020 at the latest.

^dEvaluated on 18 June 2020 (five weeks after end of actual AL3).