Table 4.
Governance Poll score, alignment, and the severity of the pandemic.
| Dep. variable | (Log of) Governance Poll score |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |
| Aligned × Post | −0.120*** (0.041) |
−0.110** (0.044) |
−0.087** (0.034) |
| Aligned | −0.001 (0.032) |
0.001 (0.034) |
−0.012 (0.034) |
| Post | 0.029 (0.050) |
0.015 (0.055) |
0.023 (0.053) |
| Aligned × Post × High mortality | 0.128** (0.052) |
||
| Aligned × High mortality | −0.050 (0.046) |
||
| Post × High mortality | −0.069* (0.036) |
||
| Aligned × Post × High COVID-19 cases | 0.112** (0.053) |
||
| Aligned × High cases | −0.048 (0.044) |
||
| Post × High cases | −0.042 (0.037) |
||
| Aligned × Post × High restrictions | 0.094* (0.050) |
||
| Aligned × High restrictions | −0.021 (0.047) |
||
| Post × High restrictions | −0.033 (0.036) |
||
| Observations | 304 | 304 | 304 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.258 | 0.254 | 0.250 |
| Municipality FE | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Poll FE | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Eco-socio-demographic controls | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Political controls | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Region × Poll | No | No | No |
Note: Aligned is a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the political party of the mayor belongs to the same political sphere as the national government and zero otherwise. Post is a dummy variable that takes a value of one for the 2020 poll (during the pandemic) and zero otherwise. Aligned x Post is an interaction term equal to one for each municipality governed by a mayor politically aligned with the national government during the pandemic and zero otherwise. High mortality is a dummy variable that takes a value of one for those municipalities whose excess mortality rate observed in the first half of 2020, as compared to the (average in the first half of) 2015–2019, is higher than the median and zero otherwise. High cases is a dummy variable that takes a value of one for those municipalities in which the number of COVID-19 cases in the first half of 2020 is higher than the median and zero otherwise. High restrictions is a dummy variable that takes a value of one for those municipalities in which the share of inactive workers due to the government's COVID-related ‘lockdown’ restrictions is higher than the median and zero otherwise. Eco-socio-demographic control variables are population, children, aged, population density, foreigners, share of population enrolled at university, unemployment rate, and number of firms. Political control variables are the mayor's age, gender, education level, profession, and distance in terms of vote share to the first non-elected candidate. Standard errors clustered at the municipality level are shown in parentheses. ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively.