Table 4.
Model average benefits, harms, and benefit to harm ratios for screening based on polygenic risk per 1000 women screened
| Risk group based on PRS | Screening based on | Screening strategy | Screens, No. | LYGa | BC deaths averteda | Over diagnoses | False positives | LYG/screens | LYG/overdiagnoses | BC deaths averted/false positives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRS7 (5.0 < RR < 10.0) | USPSTF | Bi 50-74 y | 8886 | 513 | 27.5 | 28.0 | 726 | 0.0577 | 18.30 | 0.0378 |
| ACS | An 45-54 y, Bi 55-74 y | 15 054 | 685 | 33.1 | 35.2 | 1404 | 0.0455 | 19.45 | 0.0236 | |
| ACR | An 40-74 y | 25 587 | 863 | 40.4 | 48.2 | 2432 | 0.0337 | 17.89 | 0.0166 | |
| Polygenic risk | An 30-74 y | 35 214 | 959 | 42.8 | 53.3 | 3648 | 0.0272 | 18.00 | 0.0117 | |
| PRS6 (3.0 < RR < 5.0) | USPSTF | Bi 50-74 y | 9897 | 352 | 19.3 | 24.8 | 811 | 0.0355 | 14.17 | 0.0238 |
| ACS | An 45-54 y, Bi 55-74 y | 16 369 | 459 | 22.7 | 29.7 | 1522 | 0.0280 | 15.48 | 0.0149 | |
| ACR | An 40-74 y | 28 007 | 578 | 27.8 | 40.4 | 2644 | 0.0206 | 14.31 | 0.0105 | |
| Polygenic risk | An 35-74 y | 32 835 | 616 | 28.9 | 42.6 | 3254 | 0.0188 | 14.48 | 0.0089 | |
| PRS5 (2.0 < RR < 3.0) | USPSTF | Bi 50-74 y | 10 469 | 252 | 14.0 | 21.0 | 859 | 0.0240 | 11.98 | 0.0162 |
| ACS | An 45-54 y, Bi 55-74 y | 17 096 | 325 | 16.3 | 24.6 | 1587 | 0.0190 | 13.21 | 0.0102 | |
| ACR | An 40-74 y | 29 373 | 408 | 20.0 | 33.2 | 2763 | 0.0139 | 12.31 | 0.0072 | |
| Polygenic risk | An 40-50 y, bi 50-74 y | 19 574 | 359 | 17.2 | 26.2 | 1955 | 0.0183 | 13.68 | 0.0088 | |
| PRS4 (1.5 < RR < 2.0) | USPSTF | Bi 50-74 y | 10 845 | 183 | 10.2 | 17.7 | 891 | 0.0169 | 10.34 | 0.0115 |
| ACS | An 45-54 y, Bi 55-74 y | 17 566 | 234 | 11.9 | 20.4 | 1629 | 0.0133 | 11.47 | 0.0073 | |
| ACR | An 40-74 y | 30 268 | 295 | 14.6 | 27.2 | 2839 | 0.0097 | 10.87 | 0.0051 | |
| Polygenic risk | Bi 40-74 y | 15 646 | 242 | 12.1 | 21.2 | 1463 | 0.0154 | 11.39 | 0.0083 | |
| PRS3 (1.0 < RR < 1.5) | USPSTF | Bi 50-74 y | 11 091 | 137 | 7.7 | 15.2 | 912 | 0.0123 | 8.98 | 0.0084 |
| ACS | An 45-54 y, Bi 55-74 y | 17 873 | 174 | 8.8 | 17.3 | 1656 | 0.0097 | 10.06 | 0.0053 | |
| ACR | An 40-74 y | 30 856 | 219 | 10.9 | 22.8 | 2890 | 0.0071 | 9.63 | 0.0038 | |
| Polygenic risk | Bi 40-74 y | 15 923 | 180 | 9.1 | 18.2 | 1487 | 0.0113 | 9.92 | 0.0061 | |
| PRS3 (0.5 < RR < 1.0) | USPSTF | Bi 50-74 y | 11 333 | 90 | 5.1 | 12.4 | 932 | 0.0079 | 7.29 | 0.0055 |
| ACS | An 45-54 y, Bi 55-74 y | 18 171 | 115 | 5.9 | 14.0 | 1683 | 0.0063 | 8.18 | 0.0035 | |
| ACR | An 40-74 y | 31 430 | 144 | 7.2 | 18.0 | 2939 | 0.0046 | 8.02 | 0.0024 | |
| Polygenic risk | Bi 50-74 y | 11 333 | 90 | 5.1 | 12.4 | 932 | 0.0079 | 7.29 | 0.0055 | |
| PRS3 (0.0 < RR < 0.5) | USPSTF | Bi 50-74 y | 11 588 | 40 | 2.3 | 9.1 | 953 | 0.0035 | 4.42 | 0.0024 |
| ACS | An 45-54 y, Bi 55-74 y | 18 484 | 51 | 2.6 | 10.2 | 1710 | 0.0027 | 4.98 | 0.0015 | |
| ACR | An 40-74 y | 32 037 | 64 | 3.2 | 12.4 | 2991 | 0.0020 | 5.16 | 0.0011 | |
| Polygenic risk | Tri 50-74 y | 8020 | 34 | 1.9 | 8.3 | 705 | 0.0042 | 4.10 | 0.0027 |
a
The life-years gained and breast cancer deaths averted are relative to the life-years and breast cancer deaths of women at the same level of risk who are never screened. ACR = American College of Radiology; ACS = American Cancer Society; An = annual; Bi = biennial; BC = breast cancer; LYG = life-years gained; PRS = polygenic risk score; RR = relative risk; Tri = triennial; USPSTF = United States Preventive Services Task Force.