Table 1.

Key epidemiological parameters used in simulation to explain the COVID-19 observations.

Country or territory	Population	Number of days modeled	Parameters				R2
			a	K2 × 10–3	q × 103	I0 × 10–6
China	1,439,324 K	200	0.2902	2.67	378,370	1.00	0.99460
Brazil	212,559 K	300	0.1371	15.36	3.21	36.6	0.99911
Colombia	50,883 K	300	0.1451	20.84	5.84	5.72	0.99971
France	68,148 K	200	0.3138	5.43	213.5	0.36*	0.98727
Germany	83,784 K	200	0.2190	6.06	292.7	18.0	0.99898
India	1,380,004 K	400	0.1346	6.76	27.0	2.64	0.99730
Iran	83,993 K	100	0.2096	20.36	1322	11.5	0.99910
Israel	8,656 K	100	0.2473	7.85	397.8	34.8	0.99311
Italy	60,462 K	200	0.1929	5.22	87.1	38.4	0.99713
Russia	145,934 K	200	0.1495	13.45	47.5	35.9	0.99878
Spain	46,755 K	200	0.3770	4.56	75.4	1.17*	0.98844
UK	67,886 K	200	0.1798	7.27	83.7	28.5	0.99828
USA	331,003 K	150	0.2065	19.23	85.2	19.2	0.99899
Median	83,784 K	200	0.2065	7.27	85.2	18.0	0.99828

*Unusually small I₀ for France and Spain may be caused by numerous data corrections in April'20–May'20.