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. 2021 Nov 18;11(11):e053281. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-053281

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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Calibration plot of observed (X-axis) versus predicted (Y-axis) risk of severe/fatal outcomes. The analysis was based on the pooled validation sets of 15 441 033 residents from Lombardy, Valle d’Aosta, Marche, Puglia and Sicily who experienced 7031 severe/fatal outcomes from starting (1 July 2020 in Lombardy, or 1 March 2020 in the other regions) until 31 December 2020.