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. 2021 Nov 19;184(26):6229–6242.e18. doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2021.11.026

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© 2021 The Author(s)

Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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Sample dynamics of hypothetical variants

(A) Dynamics of WT and variant strains without vaccination (top row) and with vaccination (bottom row), shown on log scale. Solid/black lines, WT; dashed/colored lines, variants; gray shading, vaccine rollout. Subsequent panels reference the simulations in (A).

(B) Total infections with WT and variants with and without vaccination (log scale). Black bars, WT; colored bars, variants; solid bars, without vaccination; hatched bars, with vaccination.

(C) WT and variant infections averted by vaccination (log scale). Black bars, WT; colored bars, variants.

(D) Total infections (WT + variant) averted by vaccination (linear scale). Dashed line, total infections averted in simulation with variant 0.

(E) Percentage of variant infections averted by vaccination (linear scale). Dashed line, percentage averted in simulation with variant 0.

(F) Percentage of all infections averted by vaccination (linear scale). Dashed line, percentage averted in simulation with variant 0. In all simulations, the variant is introduced at 9 months; in simulations with vaccination, vaccine rollout starts at 12 months and is spread over 6 months. Variant phenotypes are as follows: variant 0, identical to WT; variant 1, 60% greater transmissibility; variant 2, 40% immune escape; variant 3, 60% greater transmissibility and 40% immune escape.