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. 2021 Nov 19;184(26):6229–6242.e18. doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2021.11.026

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© 2021 The Author(s)

Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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WT^Δ and variant^Δ dynamics in simulations with full control measures

(A) Dynamics of WT^Δ and variant 1^Δ in simulations with different start times and rates of vaccine rollout.

(B) Dynamics of WT^Δ and variant 2^Δ.

(C) Dynamics of WT^Δ and variant 3^Δ. In (A)–(C), points on the y axis indicate the total numbers of primary infections (circles) and reinfections/breakthrough infections (triangles); gray shading indicates vaccine rollout.

(D) Total infections in simulations with each hypothetical variant.

(E) Percentage of all infections which occur in recovered/vaccinated individuals (reinfections and breakthrough infections).

(F) Total number of primary infections. In all simulations, WT^Δ and variant^Δ are introduced at 3 and 6 months, respectively. Vaccine coverage and efficacy are assumed to be 100% and 95%, respectively, and NPIs are maintained throughout all simulations. WT^Δ is assumed to have R₀ = 6, and variant^Δ phenotypes are as follows: variant 0^Δ, identical to WT^Δ; variant 1^Δ, 60% greater transmissibility; variant 2^Δ, 40% immune escape; variant 3^Δ, 60% greater transmissibility and 40% immune escape.