Figure S2.

Dynamics of WT and variants, in simulations with varying combinations of control measures, for alternative model with lower degree of immune escape, related to Figure 6

Dynamics of WT and variants in simulations with varying combinations of control measures. (A-D) No vaccination but NPIs in place throughout. (E-H) Default model conditions (NPIs in place throughout, 100% vaccination coverage, 95% vaccine efficacy against WT). (I-L) NPIs lifted when vaccination coverage reaches 50%. (M-Q) 50% vaccination coverage. (R-U) 70% vaccine efficacy. (V-Y) Combination of three conditions (50% vaccination coverage, 70% vaccine efficacy, and NPIs lifted when 50% of population vaccinated). In each panel, point on y axis indicates log₁₀ total number of infections. Variant introduced at 9 months in all simulations; in simulations with vaccination, rollout begins at 12 months and lasts 6 months if final coverage is 100%, 3 months if final coverage is 50%. Solid/black lines, WT; colored/dashed lines, variants; gray shading, vaccine rollout; dashed vertical line, 50% population vaccinated. Variant phenotypes are as follows: variant 0, identical to WT; variant 1, 60% greater transmissibility; variant 2, 20% immune escape; variant 3, 60% greater transmissibility and 20% immune escape.