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. 2021 Nov 18;140(1):43–49. doi: 10.1001/jamaophthalmol.2021.4852

Figure 4. Bayesian Causal Inference Modeling for the Effect of Social Distancing.

Figure 4.

A, Searches over time for conjunctivitis modeled using the counterfactual controls of searches for corneal abrasion, floaters, and photopsias. The top section shows the predicted (orange line, shaded area as 95% CI) with the actual search interest (dark blue line). The vertical line represents the start of the pandemic. The bottom section shows the cumulative effect with 95% CIs over time after the start of the pandemic. Bayesian modeling shown for conjunctivitis (B), posterior vitreous detachment (C), and corneal abrasion (D) visits to the emergency department (ED), controlled for the total emergency visit volume.