Table 3.
Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for mortality and disease progression for all scores and their original cut-offs
| Score | Cut-off | n (%) | Sensitivity [95%-CI] | Specificity [95%-CI] | PPV [95%-CI] | NPV [95%-CI] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortality | ||||||
| CALL | ≥ 6 points | 284 (96%) | 100% [94.2–100] | 5.5% [3.0–9.3] | 21.8% [17.2–27.1] | 100% [75.3–100] |
| ≥ 9 points | 219 (74%) | 93.5% [84.3–98.2] | 31.5% [25.6–37.8] | 26.5% [20.8–32.9] | 94.9% [87.4–98.6] | |
| CHOSEN | ≤ 30 points | 135 (36%) | 62.3% [50.6–73.1] | 71.3% [65.8–76.3] | 35.6% [27.5–44.2] | 88.2% [83.4–91.9] |
| HA2T2 | ≥ 3 points | 29 (19%) | 39.5% [25.0–55.6] | 88.9% [81.4–94.1] | 58.6% [38.9–76.5] | 78.7% [70.4–85.6] |
| ANDC | < 59 points | 11 (9%) | 0.0% [0.0–10.6] | 87.9% [79.4–93.8] | 0.0% [0.0–28.5] | 70.8% [61.5–79.0] |
| 59–101 points | 79 (64%) | 57.6% [39.2–74.5] | 34.1% [24.5–44.7] | 24.1% [15.1–35.0] | 68.9% [53.4–81.8] | |
| > 101 points | 34 (27%) | 42.4% [25.5–60.8] | 78.0% [68.1–86.0] | 41.2% [24.6–59.3] | 78.9% [69.0–86.8] | |
| Disease progressiona | ||||||
| CALL | ≥ 6 points | 284 (96%) | 98.0% [93.0–99.8] | 5.6% [2.8–9.8] | 34.9% [29.3–40.7] | 84.6% [54.6–98.1] |
| ≥ 9 points | 219 (74%) | 84.2% [75.6–90.7] | 31.6% [25.2–38.6] | 38.8% [32.3–45.6] | 79.5% [68.8–87.8] | |
| CHOSEN | ≤ 30 points | 135 (36%) | 53.3% [44.0–62.5] | 72.7% [66.8–78] | 47.4% [38.8–56.2] | 77.1% [71.4–82.2] |
| HA2T2 | ≥ 3 points | 29 (19%) | 23.8% [15.2–34.3] | 86.6% [76.0–93.7] | 69.0% [49.2–84.7] | 47.5% [38.4–56.8] |
| ANDC | < 59 points | 11 (9%) | 4.9% [1.0–13.7] | 87.3% [76.5–94.4] | 27.3% [6.0–61.0] | 48.7% [39.2–58.3] |
| 59–101 points | 79 (64%) | 60.7% [47.3–72.9] | 33.3% [22–46.3] | 46.8% [35.5–58.4] | 46.7% [31.7–62.1] | |
| > 101 points | 34 (27%) | 34.4% [22.7–47.7] | 79.4% [67.3–88.5] | 61.8% [43.6–77.8] | 55.6% [44.7–66.0] | |
CI confidence interval, NPV negative predictive value, PPV positive predictive value
aDefined as invasive ventilation, ICU admission or death