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. 2021 Sep 29;27(11):2032–2040. doi: 10.1038/s41591-021-01540-1

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Extended Data Fig. 5 — a, c, e, g: Grey horizontal lines show the overall risk of primary symptomatic COVID-19 in the control group (MenACWY) and vaccine groups (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19). Blue dots show the absolute risk predicted from the model across the range of antibody values included in the analysis, adjusting for baseline exposure risk to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Green shaded areas show the confidence interval around the predicted mean probability (green line). b, d, f, h: Blue shaded areas represent the immune marker density distribution. Green lines show the relative risk of infection among vaccine recipients compared to the MenACWY control arm participants. The green lines are the median relative risk obtained from 10,000 bootstrap samples. Green shaded areas are 95% bootstrapped confidence intervals for the relative risk.