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. 2021 Nov 20;21:2132. doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-12083-y

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 4 — Four measures of the accuracy and timeliness of the crowd’s forecasts. The left chart plots the percentage of days in the lifetime of each IFP that the crowd’s forecast met one of two accuracy criteria. The right chart plots how early in the lifetime of each IFP the crowd’s forecast met one of two accuracy criteria. The box plots represent 61 IFPs, with mean values are indicated by “+” marks. See text for a detailed description