Table 1.
Values and sources for model parameters included in the uncertainty analysis
| Mean value (95% UI)* | Prior distribution | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Disability weight for tuberculosis | 0·333 (0·224 to 0·454) | Beta | Global Burden of Disease Study (2019)21 |
| Disability weight for tuberculosis and HIV | 0·408 (0·274 to 0·549) | Beta | Global Burden of Disease Study (2019)21 |
| Disability weight for HIV on ART† | 0·078 (0·052 to 0·111) | Beta | Global Burden of Disease Study (2019)21 |
| Disability weight for symptomatic HIV, no ART† | 0·274 (0·184 to 0·377) | Beta | Global Burden of Disease Study (2019)21 |
| Disability weight for mild COPD | 0·019 (0·011 to 0·033) | Beta | Global Burden of Disease Study (2019)21 |
| Disability weight for moderate COPD | 0·225 (0·153 to 0·31) | Beta | Global Burden of Disease Study (2019)21 |
| Disability weight for severe COPD | 0·408 (0·273 to 0·556) | Beta | Global Burden of Disease Study (2019)21 |
| Mortality rate ratio for post-tuberculosis individuals | 2·91 (2·21 to 3·84) | Gamma | Romanowski et al (2019)2 |
| Linear term for log-linear model for mortality by FEV1% | −2·783 (−3·908 to 1·662) | Normal | Duong et al (2019)11 (function fitted to study data) |
| Quadratic term for log-linear model for mortality by FEV1% | 0·8947 (0·2759 to 1·522) | Normal | Duong et al (2019)11 (function fitted to study data) |
| Mortality risk ratio for post-tuberculosis (alternative specification) | 1·78 (1·61 to 1·98) | Gamma | Lee-Rodriguez et al (2020)22 |
| Intercept term for log-linear model for OR of chronic respiratory disease with post-tuberculosis | −1·494 (−3·223 to 0·321) | Normal | Byrne et al (2015)23 (function fitted to study data) |
| Slope term for log-linear model for OR of chronic respiratory disease in post-tuberculosis | 0·45 (0·057 to 0·831) | Normal | Byrne et al (2015)23 (function fitted to study data) |
| Duration of treated tuberculosis | 1·1 (0·2 to 2·0) | Gamma | WHO Global TB Database1 |
| Duration of untreated tuberculosis | 2·5 (1·0 to 4·0) | Gamma | WHO Global TB Database1 |
| Duration of treated tuberculosis, with HIV | 0·51 (0·01 to 1·0) | Gamma | WHO Global TB Database1 |
| Duration of untreated tuberculosis, with HIV | 0·11 (0·01 to 0·2) | Gamma | WHO Global TB Database1 |
| Total global tuberculosis cases in 2019 | 9·96 (8·94 to 11·00) | Gamma | WHO Global TB Database1 |
| Global average tuberculosis case fatality rate in 2019 | 0·14 (0·13 to 0·16) | Beta | WHO Global TB Database1 |
| Fraction of tuberculosis cases untreated | 0·29 (0·20 to 0·35) | Beta | WHO Global TB Database1 |
ART=antiretroviral therapy. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. FEV1%=forced expiratory volume in 1 s. OR=odds ratio. UI=uncertainty interval.
*
Lower and upper bounds represent the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of the parameter distribution. Together these represent an equal-tailed 95% UI for the parameter.
†
Disability weights for HIV without tuberculosis are applied to HIV-infected tuberculosis survivors.