Table 5. Observed versus predicted risk for potentially avoidable readmission (PAR).

	Risk group	Observed proportion at risk (%)	Mean predicted risk (%)
External validation
Original threshold	Low	3.0	3.3
	Medium	4.3	5.7
	High	7.5	15.9
Adapted threshold	Low	3.4	4.7
	Medium	6.0	8.0
	High	7.9	18.6
Original publication [12]
Derivation cohort	Low	2.6	3.1
	Medium	5.2	5.0
	High	12.9	13.1
Validation cohort	Low	2.4	3.5
	Medium	5.7	5.7
	High	13.1	13.9