TABLE 2—

Cumulated Excess Deaths Rate per 100 000, All Causes, Pooled Cross-Sectional Time Series Analysis: 50 US States, February‒November 2020

Variables	Cumulated Excess Deaths, All Causesa	Coefficient (P)
Cumulated incident cases rate/100 000		0.01 (< .001)
2000-unit increase	98 141
4000-unit increase	196 282
6000-unit increase	294 423
8000-unit increase	392 564
10 000-unit increase	490 705
Unemployment rate as proportion (%) of total labor force aged ≥ 16 years, seasonally adjusted		1.09 (< .001)
5-unit increase	17 850
10-unit increase	35 700
15-unit increase	53 549
20-unit increase	71 399
25-unit increase	89 249
Cumulated total bankruptcies rate/100 000		0.37 (< .001)
60-unit increase	72 242
120-unit increase	144 483
180-unit increase	216 725
240-unit increase	288 967
300-unit increase	361 208
Percentage of population aged ≥ 75 years, July 1, 2019, estimate		7.99 (.015)
1-unit increase	26 243
2-unit increase	52 485
3-unit increase	78 728
4-unit increase	104 971
5-unit increase	131 213
Percentage of Black or African not Hispanic or Latino, July 1, 2019, estimate		0.48 (.14)
5-unit increase	7 911
10-unit increase	15 822
20-unit increase	31 643
30-unit increase	47 465
40-unit increase	63 286
Percentage of White Hispanic or Latino, July 1, 2019, estimate		0.42 (.16)
5-unit increase	6 846
10-unit increase	13 692
20-unit increase	27 385
30-unit increase	41 077
40-unit increase	54 770
Constant		−73.19 (.003)

Note. Data show expected additional excess deaths, all causes, when the independent variable increases by the specified units. The estimated coefficients from the excess deaths model were used to calculate the associated change of the cumulated excess deaths rate, all causes. Based on the total US population from the year 2019, the change of the cumulated excess death rate was converted to expected additional excess deaths numbers (e.g., a change of the unemployment rate by absolute 10% results in 35 700 additional excess deaths). Analogously, when the cumulated bankruptcies rate per 100 000 changes by 120 units, then this will result in 144 483 additional excess deaths. The potential changes of the independent variables were derived by inspection of the descriptive statistics for each variable. Data and their sources of control variables are listed in Appendix B (available as a supplement to the online version of this article at http://www.ajph.org). For all key variables, a summary of descriptive statistics is provided in Appendix E (available as a supplement to the online version of this article at http://www.ajph.org).

^aEstimates for excess deaths were based on a 2019 US population of 328 239 523. The number of observations for the analysis was n = 500; R² = .62; Wald χ²(5) (Prob > χ²) = 2053.66 (P < .001).