Figure 1.

Consequences of earlier detection. A) With cancer present at a given age (here, 55 years), the standard modality (1) gives a negative screen, whereas the more sensitive modality (2) finds a screen-detected cancer. Alternative outcomes of what would have transpired if the woman had undergone only modality 1 screening are shown. B) Downstream consequences of the alternative outcomes are shown, as well as the net effect of using modality 2. Some scenarios (in blue) are relative benefits of modality 2 relative to 1, whereas others (in red) are potential harms.