Table 2. Summary of model projections after following the recommended guidelines set by WHO and suggestions for programmatic adaptations in cases where the WHO goals are not achieved for S. haematobium (no acquired immunity is assumed) [12].
Baseline prevalence in SAC | Morbidity goal reached? | EPHP goal reached? | Programmatic adaptation |
---|---|---|---|
Low (< 10%) | Yes, within 3 years | Yes, within 15 years | NA |
Moderate (47%) | Yes, within 11 years | Not reached | Include adult treatment at 40% coverage |
High (≥ 50%) | Yes, within 15 years | Not reached | Increase coverage to 85% for SAC and include adult treatment at 40% coverage |
β0−4 = 0.17, β5−11 = 1, β12−20 = 0.11, β21+ = 0.035 are estimated by fitting the model to intensity data for S.haematobium (data from Misungwi area (Tanzania).