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. 2020 Oct 6;8:175244–175264. doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3019922

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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FIGURE 11. — Estimation and forecasting, respectively in solid and dashed lines, of the number of infected individuals in the USA (legend is reported in the bottom-right corner image; the superscript E stands for estimate, and the superscript F stands for forecast). The date corresponding to the end of the estimation and the beginning of the forecast is marked by a vertical dotted line. In all the cases, the forecast horizon is July 31. The shaded area represents the 90% confidence interval. The poor forecasts made on May 11 and 16, relate to the abrupt decrease of the estimated recovery rate that follows April 30 (cf. Fig. 10, bottom image).