TABLE 2. Average Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPEs) of the Forecasts of the Epidemic Evolution in Lombardia, Italy, Obtained With the Proposed Algorithm, and With the SIR-Fit and GSEIR-Fit Curve-Fitting approaches, for Different Forecast Horizons, That is, 3, 7, and 14 Days. The Uppermost Table Reports the Average MAPEs Computed Over the Interval From March 4 to June 16; the Lowermost Table Reports the Average MAPEs Computed Over the Interval From April 1 to June 16.
| Algorithm | 3 Days (%) | 7 Days (%) | 14 Days (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proposed | 6.2 | 10.4 | 23.5 |
| SIR-fit | 77.5 | 115.3 | 225.8 |
| GSEIR-fit | 10.3 | 13.0 | 18.5 |
| Average over the interval from March 4 to June 16 | |||
| Algorithm | 3 Days (%) | 7 Days (%) | 14 Days (%) |
| Proposed | 3.3 | 4.9 | 9.4 |
| SIR-fit | 88.2 | 123.0 | 213.2 |
| GSEIR-fit | 11.6 | 13.6 | 16.8 |
| Average over the interval from April 1 to June 16 | |||