TABLE 4. Average Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPEs) of the Forecasts of the Epidemic Evolution in the USA, Obtained With the Proposed Algorithm, and With the SIR-Fit and GSEIR-Fit Curve-Fitting Approaches, for Different Forecast Horizons, That is, 3, 7, and 14 Days. The Uppermost Table Reports the Average MAPEs Computed Over the Interval From March 10 to July 17; the Lowermost Table Reports the Average MAPEs Computed Over the Interval From April 1 to July 17.
Algorithm | 3 Days (%) | 7 Days (%) | 14 Days (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Proposed | 7.3 | 11.9 | 29.8 |
SIR-fit | 81.6 | 122.4 | 232.4 |
GSEIR-fit | 14.0 | 20.0 | 35.2 |
Average over the interval from March 10 to July 17 | |||
Algorithm | 3 Days (%) | 7 Days (%) | 14 Days (%) |
Proposed | 3.4 | 4.5 | 7.2 |
SIR-fit | 91.4 | 138.8 | 267.6 |
GSEIR-fit | 12.1 | 17.0 | 28.7 |
Average over the interval from April 1 to June 17 |