Table 2.
Hazard ratios of moving to each state, with 95% confidence intervals. All estimates are adjusted to age at start of follow-up*.
| Progressing transitions |
Resolving/Remitting transitions |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 -> 1 LTC | 1 -> 2 LTC | 2 -> 3+ LTC | 0 -> Death | 1 -> Death | 2 -> Death | 3+ -> Death | 1-> 0 LTC | 2 -> 1 LTC | 3+ -> 2 LTC | |
| Age 40–59 vs 18–39 | 1·68 (1·66, 1·71) | 1·87 (1·81, 1·94) | 1·33 (1·29, 1·36) | 3·00 (2·44, 3·69) | 4·17 (3·49, 4·98) | 3·22 (2·62, 3·95) | 2·95 (2·71, 3·22) | 0·44 (0·42, 0·46) | 1·31 (1·22, 1·39) | 0·38 (0·36, 0·40) |
| Age 60–79 vs 18–39 | 3·63 (3·53, 3·73) | 7·88 (6·72, 9·24) | 2·22 (2·15, 2·3) | 36·72 (30·65, 43·98) | 16·53 (13·55, 20·18) | 9·70 (7·86, 11·97) | 10·22 (9·42, 11·09) | 0·39 (0·34, 0·44) | 4·90 (4·04, 5·94) | 0·19 (0·17, 0·21) |
| Age 80+ vs 18–39 | 4·04 (3·79, 4·31) | NA | 4·49 (4·23, 4·77) | NA | NA | NA | 33·77 (31·05, 36·72) | 0·28 (0·18, 0·42) | NA | 0·27 (0·22, 0·33) |
| Female vs Male | 1·50 (1·48, 1·52) | 1·17 (1·13, 1·20) | 1·02 (1·00, 1·05) | 0·75 (0·66, 0·85) | 0·43 (0·37, 0·50) | 0·65 (0·58, 0·72) | 0·67 (0·65, 0·69) | 1·05 (1·02, 1·08) | 1·02 (0·98, 1·07) | 0·87 (0·83, 0·92) |
| Black vs White | 1·36 (1·33, 1·39) | 1·25 (1·20, 1·30) | 0·98 (0·96, 1·01) | 1·38 (1·08, 1·77) | 0·69 (0·54, 0·88) | 0·74 (0·62, 0·90) | 0·67 (0·65, 0·70) | 0·91 (0·87, 0·95) | 1·20 (1·13, 1·28) | 0·98 (0·92, 1·04) |
| Asian vs While | 1·03 (1·00, 1·06) | 1·2 (1·13, 1·28) | 0·92 (0·88, 0·96) | 0·88 (0·59, 1·32) | 0·62 (0·41, 0·95) | 0·66 (0·48, 0·91) | 0·71 (0·66, 0·75) | 1·04 (0·98, 1·11) | 1·22 (1·09, 1·36) | 0·98 (0·88, 1·10) |
| IMD most vs least deprived | 1·06 (0·99, 1·13) | 1·46 (1·30, 1·64) | 1·16 (1·03, 1·30) | 2·24 (1·01, 4·98) | 2·31 (1·03, 5·17) | 4·06 (1·29, 12·80) | 1·59 (1·32, 1·91) | 0·68 (0·60, 0·76) | 1·23 (1·01, 1·49) | 0·69 (0·54, 0·89) |
| At least one risk factor vs none | 2·77 (2·72, 2·81) | 1·69 (1·63, 1·74) | 1·47 (1·40, 1·53) | 0·40 (0·34, 0·47) | 0·93 (0·74, 1·17) | 0·15 (0·13, 0·17) | 0·49 (0·45, 0·53) | 0·97 (0·94, 1·00) | 0·95 (0·9, 1·00) | 0·49 (0·45, 0·53) |
| Ever alcohol vs none | 1·61 (1·50, 1·72) | 1·43 (1·23, 1·68) | 1·00 (0·92, 1·09) | 0·23 (0·04, 1·36) | 0·35 (0·11, 1·06) | 1·18 (0·72, 1·94) | 1·06 (0·93, 1·22) | 1·68 (1·50, 1·89) | 1·85 (1·50, 2·28) | 0·88 (0·74, 1·05) |
| Resolved alcohol vs none | 1·53 (1·23, 1·90) | 2·00 (0·67, 5·98) | 0·87 (0·72, 1·06) | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1·40 (0·92, 2·13) | 2·57 (0·76, 8·68) | 0·80 (0·57, 1·12) |
| Ever moderate obese vs none | 2·95 (2·88, 3·03) | 1·75 (1·69, 1·81) | 1·29 (1·26, 1·32) | 0·20 (0·11, 0·37) | 0·29 (0·24, 0·36) | 0·36 (0·28, 0·45) | 0·58 (0·56, 0·61) | 1·61 (1·53, 1·69) | 1·4 (1·33, 1·48) | 0·78 (0·74, 0·83) |
| Resolved moderate obese vs none | NA | 1·16 (1·09, 1·23) | 1·34 (1·29, 1·39) | NA | 0·12 (0·07, 0·21) | 0·01 (0, 1·08) | 0·6 (0·57, 0·63) | NA | 0·74 (0·67, 0·82) | 0·66 (0·59, 0·73) |
| Ever smoker vs none | 1·29 (1·27, 1·32) | 1·40 (1·35, 1·44) | 1·3 (1·27, 1·34) | 0·97 (0·81, 1·15) | 3·02 (2·58, 3·53) | 1·6 (1·42, 1·81) | 1·8 (1·74, 1·87) | 0·89 (0·86, 0·93) | 1·27 (1·20, 1·34) | 0·80 (0·75, 0·85) |
| Resolved smoker vs none | 2·12 (2·07, 2·16) | 1·22 (1·17, 1·26) | 1·21 (1·18, 1·24) | 0·07 (0·03, 0·16) | 0·74 (0·61, 0·90) | 0·34 (0·29, 0·41) | 1·00 (0·97, 1·04) | 1·34 (1·28, 1·39) | 1·02 (0·97, 1·08) | 0·85 (0·80, 0·90) |
| Ever cholesterol vs none | NA | 0·81 (0·79, 0·84) | 1·09 (1·07, 1·12) | 1·53 (1·30, 1·80) | NA | 0·20 (0·17, 0·24) | 0·55 (0·54, 0·57) | NA | 0·70 (0·66, 0·73) | 0·59 (0·55, 0·62) |
| Ever substance use vs none* | NA | NA | 1·06 (1·02, 1·09) | NA | NA | NA | 0·55 (0·52, 0·58) | NA | NA | 0·55 (0·51, 0·61) |
⁎
Substance use is unable to be age adjusted due to low counts
“Ever” risk factor = Any record of the risk factor either prior to or during the registration period, but never resolved
“Resolved” risk factor = Resolved during period of registration
“None” risk factor = No record of the risk factor at any point
“NA” = Confidence intervals from the Hazard ratios were unable to be calculated from the model, due to low numbers in these transitions
IMD = Indices of Multiple Deprivation; LTCs = Long term conditions.