Fig. 1.

Compartmental diagram of dynamic transmission model (single subpopulation stratum, labeled subscript i). In each subpopulation (urban poor or less socioeconomically disadvantaged), susceptible individuals (S) may become infected (E) and remain asymptomatic, develop mild symptoms (I1), or develop severe symptoms (I2). Infected individuals who recover (R) may first undertake home isolation (HI) or hospitalization (H). Severely ill individuals who do not seek care may recover or die in the community. As a result of contact tracing efforts, contacts of newly infected individuals may remove themselves from the community via quarantine (EH) during the incubation period, before continuing to isolate or seek treatment if they develop symptoms. Household members (HS) of newly infected cases are expected to be at higher risk and become infected (HE) at a higher rate than community contacts.