TABLE 3.
Prediction accuracy for Mortality and ICU requirement groups with CURB‐65, ISARIC‐4C and COVID‐GRAM scores in COVID‐19 patients
| Scores | Risk levels | Survivor (n = 361) | Non‐survivor (n = 120) | Sens. | Spec. | PPV | NPV | AUC | YJI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction accuracy for mortality | |||||||||
| CURB 65 | Low | 267 (93.7%) | 18 (6.3%) | 85 | 73.96 | 52.0 | 93.7 | 0.846 (0.810‐0.877) a | 0.59 |
| Med. | 83 (65.9%) | 43 (34.1%) | |||||||
| High | 11 (15.7%) | 59 (84.3%) | |||||||
| ISARIC 4C | Low | 102 (98.1%) | 2 (1.9%) | 98.33 | 28.25 | 31.3 | 98.1 | 0.784 (0.744‐0.820) a | 0.27 |
| Med. | 137 (91.9%) | 12 (8.1%) | |||||||
| High | 122 (53.5%) | 106 (46.5%) | |||||||
| COVID GRAM | Low | 3 (100%) | 0 (0.0%) | 100.00 | 0.83 | 25.1 | 100.0 | 0.701 (0.658‐0.742) a | 0.01 |
| Med. | 151 (98.1%) | 3 (1.9%) | |||||||
| High | 207 (63.9%) | 117 (36.1%) | |||||||
| Scores | Risk levels | IU (n = 396) | ICU (n = 85) | Sens. | Spec. | PPV | NPV | AUC | YJI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction accuracy for ICU requirement | |||||||||
| CURB 65 | Low | 281 (97.9%) | 6 (2.1%) | 92.94 | 70.45 | 40.3 | 97.9 | 0.898 (0.867‐0.923) a | 0.63 |
| Med. | 103 (81.7%) | 23 (18.3%) | |||||||
| High | 14 (20.0%) | 56 (80.0%) | |||||||
| ISARIC 4C | Low | 104 (100%) | 0 (0.0%) | 100.0 | 26.26 | 22.5 | 100.0 | 0.797 (0.758‐0.832) a | 0.26 |
| Med. | 147 (97.4%) | 4 (2.6%) | |||||||
| High | 147 (64.5%) | 81 (35.5%) | |||||||
| COVID GRAM | Low | 3 (100.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | 100.0 | 0.76 | 17.8 | 100.0 | 0.684 (0.640‐0.725) a | 0.01 |
| Med. | 154 (98.7%) | 2 (1.3%) | |||||||
| High | 241 (74.4%) | 83 (25.6%) | |||||||
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the curve; ICU, intensive care unit; IU, inpatient unit; Med., medium; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; Sens., sensitivity; Spec., specificity; YJI, Youden's J Index.
a
95% confidence interval.
*The p values of the AUC for both mortality and ICU requirement groups of all three scoring systems were calculated as "<.001". The Youden J Index is a significance measurement and does not generate a p‐value.