Appendix 1—table 2. Parameter estimates.

Simulation	Maximum likelihood(μ,γ) pair	μ Value from the marginal posterior distribution	γ Value from the marginal posterior distribution
Main text (Figure 2C)	μ = 1.78 (CFU/g feces per day)γ = 3.16 × 10–11 (per CFU/g feces per day)	7.1 (CFU/g feces per day)HPD: [0.03, 31.6]	9.36 × 10–10 (per CFU/g feces per day)HPD: [1 × 10–12, 5.6 × 10–9]

HPD: Highest posterior density interval.