Table 3.

BRCAPANCPRO validation measures for future risk of pancreatic cancer in the NFPTR data.

	Incident cases (N)	Pancreatic cancer-free at follow-up (N)	O/E ratio [95% CI], Pc
			BRCAPANCPRO	Original PANCPRO
Relation to proband
All first degreea	113	17,610	0.83 [0.67, 0.99], P = 0.79	0.73 [0.60, 0.88], P = 0.06
>first degreeb	46	8560	0.78 [0.57, 1.01], P = 0.84	0.71 [0.50, 0.93], P = 0.37
Family history
PC only	72	15,217	0.69 [0.54, 0.86], P = 0.07	0.61 [0.48, 0.76], P < 0.001
PC and BC/OC	87	10,953	0.95 [0.75, 1.16], P = 0.99	0.85 [0.68, 1.04], P = 0.96
Ascertainment method
Clinic based	47	12,199	1.06 [0.79, 1.40], P = 0.99	0.93 [0.69, 1.21], P = 0.99
Referral	112	13,971	0.74 [0.48, 0.87], P = 0.08	0.66 [0.53, 0.78], P < 0.001
All individuals	159	26,170	0.81 [0.69, 0.94], P = 0.38	0.72 [0.61, 0.84], P = 0.003

O/E observed to expected, CI confidence interval, N number.

^aFirst-degree relatives include parents, siblings, and offspring.

^bAbove first degree includes all second-degree relatives (grandparents, aunts, uncles, nieces, and nephews), third degree and above.

^cP value for Hosmer–Lemeshow test for goodness of fit of the model prediction of future risk of pancreatic cancer.