Table 2.
Projected cancer deaths, attributable or preventable cancer deaths, and cumulative preventable cancer deaths of selected lifestyle factors that are associated with cancers in Canada from 2024 to 2047 estimated using the OncoSim all-cancer model
| Exposure | Intervention targets/scenarios | Projected cancer deaths* | Preventable/attributable deaths** | Cumulative preventable deaths† |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active smoking | Base | 72,934 | 26,446 | |
| 10% reduction in smoking by 2032 | 72,200 | 734 | 6373 | |
| 25% reduction in smoking by 2032 | 71,098 | 1836 | 15,934 | |
| 50% reduction in smoking by 2032 | 69,262 | 3672 | 31,869 | |
| Price increases reduced smoking by 3.7% in 2018 | 71,016 | 1918 | 28,461 | |
| Reduce smoking prevalence to 5% by 2035 | 69,103 | 3831 | 33,158 | |
| WHO 2020 goal: 30% relative reduction in current smoking by 2020 | 70,731 | 2203 | 34,601 | |
| Passive smoking | Base | 23,453 | 278 | |
| 10% reduction in secondhand smoking by 2032 | 23,425 | 28 | 276 | |
| 25% reduction in secondhand smoking by 2032 | 23,384 | 70 | 690 | |
| 50% reduction in secondhand smoking by 2032 | 23,314 | 139 | 1379 | |
| Alcohol | Base | 34,405 | 2809 | |
| Alcohol drinking prevalence decreases by 10% by 2032 | 34,124 | 281 | 4312 | |
| Alcohol drinking prevalence decreases by 25% by 2032 | 33,703 | 702 | 10,780 | |
| Alcohol drinking prevalence decreases by 50% by 2032 | 33,000 | 1405 | 21,557 | |
| Everyone who drinks > 1/day reduces 1 drink | 33,062 | 1343 | 21,526 | |
| WCRF guideline | 33,584 | 822 | 13,240 | |
| Canadian guideline | 34,060 | 345 | 5756 | |
| Excess body weight | Base | 49,241 | 5604 | |
| Population BMI held at 2018 level | 47,978 | 1264 | 9030 | |
| Population BMI reverted to 1994 distribution | 46,199 | 3042 | 22,495 | |
| Population mean BMI reduced by 1.0 | 47,333 | 1909 | 13,792 | |
| Prevalence of overweight and obesity reduced by 5% by 2032 | 48,044 | 1198 | 8561 | |
| Prevalence of overweight and obesity reduced by 10% by 2032 | 47,180 | 2061 | 14,951 | |
| Prevalence of overweight and obesity reduced by 25% by 2032 | 45,612 | 3630 | 27,234 | |
| Inadequate physical activity | Base | 53,266 | 4898 | |
| 10% reduction in inadequate physical activity by 2032 | 52,862 | 405 | 3309 | |
| 25% reduction in inadequate physical activity by 2032 | 52,255 | 1012 | 8271 | |
| 50% reduction in inadequate physical activity by 2032 | 51,243 | 2023 | 16,543 | |
| Sedentary behaviour | Base | 21,114 | 1975 | |
| 10% reduction in sedentary time by 2032 | 20,926 | 188 | 1438 | |
| 25% reduction in sedentary time by 2032 | 20,643 | 471 | 3595 | |
| 50% reduction in sedentary time by 2032 | 20,172 | 942 | 7191 | |
| Low fruit consumption | Base | 58,821 | 5647 | |
| Everyone increases fruit intake by 1 serving/day | 56,594 | 2227 | 43,500 | |
| Everyone increases fruit intake by 2 servings/day | 54,849 | 3973 | 78,740 | |
| A relative 50% reduction in the prevalence of low fruit by 2032 | 55,998 | 2823 | 22,692 | |
| Low vegetable consumption | Base | 59,410 | 4297 | |
| Everyone increases vegetable intake by 1 serving/day | 57,555 | 1855 | 37,012 | |
| Everyone increases vegetable intake by 2 servings/day | 56,217 | 3192 | 65,959 | |
| A relative 50% reduction in the prevalence of low vegetable by 2032 | 57,262 | 2148 | 17,824 | |
| Processed meat | Base | 22,397 | 1094 | |
| Everyone reduces processed meat by 0.2 servings/week | 22,226 | 170 | 3068 | |
| Everyone reduces processed meat by 0.5 servings/week | 21,974 | 423 | 7629 | |
| Everyone reduces processed meat by 1 serving/week | 21,563 | 834 | 15,065 | |
| Red meat | Base | 23,288 | 1849 | |
| Everyone reduces red meat by 0.5 servings/week | 23,006 | 282 | 5012 | |
| Everyone reduces red meat by 1 serving/week | 22,728 | 560 | 9958 | |
| Everyone reduces red meat by 2 servings/week | 22,184 | 1104 | 19,655 |
BMI, body mass index; WCRF, World Cancer Research Fund; WHO, World Health Organization
*Projected cancer deaths from all cancer sites associated with the risk factor in 2047
**Attributable cancer deaths of base scenario in 2047, or preventable cancer deaths of interventions in 2047
†Cumulative preventable deaths from 2024 to 2047