Table 3.
Projected cancer deaths, attributable or preventable cancer deaths, and cumulative preventable cancer deaths of selected environmental factors and infections that are associated with cancers in Canada from 2024 to 2047 estimated using the OncoSim all-cancer model
| Exposure | Intervention targets/scenarios | Projected cancer deaths* | Preventable/attributable deaths** | Cumulative preventable deaths† |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air pollution (PM2.5) | Base | 25,395 | 1360 | |
| Declining trend | 25,145 | 250 | 2288 | |
| 50% reduction off stabilized levels by 2036 | 25,032 | 363 | 2916 | |
| Radon | Base | 25,395 | 1735 | |
| Radon mitigation of above 100 Bq/m3 to 50 Bq/m3 by 2036 | 25,064 | 331 | 2832 | |
| Radon mitigation of above 200 Bq/m3 to 50 Bq/m3 by 2036 | 25,175 | 220 | 1841 | |
| UVR risk behaviours | Base | 2028 | 1190 | |
| UVR risk behaviours | 10% reduction in UVR risk behaviours by 2037 | 1985 | 43 | 408 |
| UVR risk behaviours | 25% reduction in UVR risk behaviours by 2037 | 1916 | 112 | 1053 |
| UVR risk behaviours | 50% reduction in UVR risk behaviours by 2037 | 1784 | 244 | 2232 |
| HBV | Base | 2484 | 219 | |
| HBV | 10% reduction in the prevalence of HBV infection by 2027 | 2462 | 22 | 101 |
| HBV | 25% reduction in the prevalence of HBV infection by 2027 | 2429 | 55 | 253 |
| HBV | 50% reduction in the prevalence of HBV infection by 2027 | 2374 | 110 | 507 |
| HCV | Base | 7223 | 385 | |
| HCV | 10% reduction in the prevalence of HCV infection by 2027 | 7184 | 38 | 182 |
| HCV | 25% reduction in the prevalence of HCV infection by 2027 | 7127 | 96 | 453 |
| HCV | 50% reduction in the prevalence of HCV infection by 2027 | 7031 | 192 | 907 |
| H. pylori | Base | 2361 | 1406 | |
| H. pylori | 10% reduction in the prevalence of H. pylori infection by 2027 | 2221 | 141 | 611 |
| H. pylori | 25% reduction in the prevalence of H. pylori infection by 2027 | 2010 | 352 | 1528 |
| H. pylori | 50% reduction in the prevalence of H. pylori infection by 2027 | 1658 | 703 | 3056 |
Bq/m3, becquerels per cubic metre; HBV, hepatitis B virus; HCV, hepatitis C virus; H. pylori, Helicobacter pylori; PM2.5, particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 μm; UVR, ultraviolet radiation
*Projected cancer deaths from all cancer sites associated with the risk factor in 2047
**Attributable cancer deaths of base scenario in 2047, or preventable cancer deaths of interventions in 2047
†Cumulative preventable deaths from 2024 to 2047