FIGURE 8.

A, Posterior predictive check of the number of students in bed each day during an influenza A (H1N1) outbreak at a British boarding school. The line shows the median and the orange area the 90% prediction interval. B, Prior and posterior predictive checks of the basic reproduction number ${ℛ}_0$ and of the recovery time (both truncated at 8). The dot shows the median posterior and the line shows the 95% credible interval [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]