TABLE 1.

Model parameters identified by fitting Italian official data of reported hospitalizations and deaths ³⁵

Symbol	Meaning	Value
$\mu$	transition rate $I\to R$	0.488
$\gamma$	transition rate $I\to H$	0.0279
$\nu$	transition rate $H\to R$	0.356
$\lambda$	transition rate $H\to D$	0.122
${\varphi }_{\text{NPI}}$	social activity reduction with severe NPIs	0.572
${\beta }_0$	infection rate without severe NPIs	0.799
$\bar{H}$	critical number of hospitalizations	20,320
$\kappa$	reactivity of the population	20.32

Abbreviation: NPI, nonpharmaceutical intervention.